AROUND NEW HAMPSHIRE
1. State House Watch
State House Watch September 18 2015 Issue 28
Members of the NH House and Senate returned to Concord for the day on Wednesday, September 16. The previously scheduled special session to conduct votes on overrides of 10 gubernatorial vetoes took on additional importance when Governor Hassan, Senate President Morse, and Speaker of the House Jasper announced the previous day that they had reached agreement on a compromise budget.
When the dust settled after a raucous day – at least in the House – legislators had approved a state budget and sustained Governor Hassan’s vetoes of the eight non-budget bills.
State House attention will now shift to the 2016 session and to bills which were retained in House committees or re-referred to Senate committees. Meetings of new study committees are also scheduled. See below for highlights.
Attention will also shift to the 2016 election. Watch for an announcement from Governor Hassan about her political ambitions.
The Budget
To recap, Governor Hassan vetoed the budget at the end of June for three major reasons: it did not include funds for a negotiated pay raise for state employees; it did not reauthorize or fund the extension of the NH Health Protection Program; and it cut business taxes without balancing the cuts with other revenue. The Governor did agree with legislators on a continuing resolution that kept state operations going based on funding levels in the budget for the previous fiscal year that ended June 30. During the summer, Governor Hassan offered a compromise that included business tax cuts paid for with revenue increases from other sources, but this was initially rejected by House and Senate leaders.
The agreement which formed the basis for Wednesday’s vote approved funds for the pay raise. It also cut the Business Enterprise Tax and the Business Profits Tax in two steps, but with a threshold level of revenue that must be reached before the second step would go into effect.
The process agreed upon by the deal-makers called for the pay raise and the tax cut to be incorporated into a new bill, SB 9, and for the budget which Governor Hassan had vetoed back in June to be approved. Because it was introduced after the regular session deadline, the consideration of SB 9 required a two-thirds vote to “suspend the rules.” Likewise, the approval of the budget – HB 1 and HB 2 – would require a two-thirds majority to override the governor’s veto.
On the Senate side, the procedural votes--the vote on SB 9, and the votes of HB 1 and HB 2-- were unanimous.
The House votes were rather more contentious, with the faction led by former Speaker Bill O’Brien aiming to block the budget proposal. There were also votes on three amendments aiming to tack the substance of three vetoed bills (voter suppression, guns and Planet Fitness) onto the budget, plus another one challenging funds for a new Merrimack County courthouse. All four amendments were defeated by large margins. Finally, SB 9 was adopted 291 to 73. (Three Democrats joined 70 Republicans in voting “no.”)HB 1, the budget itself, was approved by a 321 – 25 vote overriding the governor’s veto, with three Democrats joining 22 Republicans in opposition. HB 2, the budget “trailer bill,” was approved 326 – 21, with two Democrats joining 19 Republicans in opposition.
As much as we are pleased with the enactment of a budget and the appropriation of funds for a well-deserved state employee pay raise, we are concerned about the impact of business tax cuts on a state that never seems to have adequate funds for needed services. Jeff McLynch of the NH Fiscal Policy Institute commented, "It should be clear from the past nine months of budget deliberations that New Hampshire already lacks sufficient resources to meet its needs. Reducing revenue still further will only make it harder to maintain our roads, educate our children, and provide health, safety, and other public services essential to a strong economy and shared prosperity for all in the Granite State.”
We also want to signal our distress that re-authorization of the NH Health Protection Program was not included in the budget deal. While we are glad to know Senate leadership has made a commitment to take this up after the new year begins, we think the stress this puts on recipients and providers of health care is uncalled for.
Finally, we want to thank the members of NH Voices of Faith for another day of strong witness in the State House halls.
Vetoes
There were eight other bills, four each from the House and Senate, which had been vetoed and were subjects of override votes. A two-thirds vote in both chambers would have been required for the veto to be overridden. With Democratic allies of Governor Hassan holding more than one-third of the seats in both chambers, her vetoes were all sustained on essentially partisan votes.
These vetoed bills were:
HB 332, relative to school district policy regarding objectionable course material, sustained 226 – 148.
HB 449, relative to the duration of child support, sustained 229 – 151.
HB 550, relative to administration of the tobacco tax and relative to the sale or exchange of an interest in a business organization under the business profits tax (the Planet Fitness tax giveaway), sustained 230 – 147.
HB 603, relative to student exemption from the statewide assessment, sustained 211 – 141.
SB 101, an act prohibiting the state from requiring implementation of Common Core standards, sustained 13 – 11, with Senator Stiles joining the Democrats.
SB 116, repealing the license requirement for carrying a concealed pistol or revolver, sustained 14 – 10.
SB 169, relative to the use of electronic benefits transfer (EBT) cards, sustained 14 – 10.
SB 179, relative to eligibility to vote and relative to availability of voter information, sustained 13 -11, with Senator Little joining the Democrats.
Today is the deadline for House members to propose legislation for the 2016 session. The window for Senators to propose bills is October 13 to November 3.
Coming Up at the State House
Monday, September 21, 2015
Continuing Resolution Work Group: Sununu Youth Services Center Transformation Plan, 1:00 p.m. Room 100, SH Work Session
Interbranch Criminal and Juvenile Justice Council, 1:30 p.m. Room 204, LOB, Regular Meeting
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Committee to Study Public Access to Political Campaign Information (SB 92), 9:30 a.m. Room 100, SH, Regular Meeting
House Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee
10:00 a.m. Subcommittee work session on retained HB 605-FN, repealing mandatory minimum sentences, Room 206, LOB
10:00 a.m. Subcommittee work session on retained bills HB 240, prohibiting law enforcement agencies from using a drone to collect evidence; HB 602-FN, relative to the use of drones, Room 306, LOB
2:00 p.m. Subcommittee work session on retained bills HB 617-FN-A, requiring state police to wear a camera when interacting with the public; HB 583-FN, requiring state law enforcement officers to wear a camera when interacting with the public and making an appropriation therefor, with Executive Departments and Administration Committee, Room 306, LOB
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Committee to Study Public Access to Political Campaign Information (SB 92), 9:30 a.m. Room 100, SH Regular Meeting
Committee to Study the Classifications of Military Vehicles and Equipment that may be Purchased by the State and its Political Subdivisions (HB 407, Chapter 232:1, Laws of 2015) 10:00 a.m. Room 301, LOB Organizational Meeting
Legislative Service Requests (proposals for new bills)
As noted above, today is the deadline for House members to submit the titles of bills they intend to introduce in 2016. At the time we are writing this, there are 279 LSRs posted on the General Court’s website. Check this site next week for a complete list.
At this time all we know are the bills' titles. Here are some that caught our attention, with the name of the sponsor:
“relative to earned time credits for prisoners participating in rehabilitative programming, “ Rep. David Welch
“reducing business taxes, repealing the education tax, and establishing an income tax,” Rep. Paul Henle
“extending the New Hampshire health protection program,” Rep. Thomas Sherman
“relative to charges imposed upon New Hampshire residents for the construction of natural gas pipelines,” Rep. James McConnell
“relative to sanctuary cities,” Rep. John Potucek
“extending the penalty of death to acts of terrorism and civil rights offenses,” Rep. Jack Flanagan
“relative to inquiries by employers into the criminal history of applicants for employment,” Rep. Frank Heffron
“relative to conversion therapy seeking to change a person's sexual orientation,” Rep. Eric Schleien
“relative to disqualifying members of certain groups from receiving public assistance,” Rep. Kenneth Weyler
“relative to minimum and maximum sentences for felony convictions,” Rep. Robert Cushing
“requiring drug testing of public assistance recipients,” Rep. Don Leeman
“implementing a bottle deposit program,” Rep. Travis Bennett
Survey on Family Friendly Workplaces
Terie Norelli, President & CEO of the NH Women’s Foundation wants to hear from you: “What you think makes a family friendly workplace, how important that is to you, and what your experience has been here in our state. If you live or work in New Hampshire, please take this survey. It will take less than ten minutes, and the feedback will be very important to us.”
Click here to take the survey. Thanks.
AFSC Announcements
“What a Difference 40 Years Can Make,” October 24 - The AFSC’s NH Program turns 40 years old this fall! Join us to celebrate on Saturday, October 24 in Concord. The event will feature a catered dinner and a program with stories from friends including Rep. Renny Cushing, Valerie Cunningham, Sister Madonna Moran, Honoré Murenzi, Molly Messenger, John Gforerer, Rev. Sandra Pontoh, and more. Click here for information and to sign up.
Rise Again, October 10 ---A singalong concert featuring several renowned folk musicians will be held at the Concord Community Music School on Saturday, October 10, 2015 to celebrate the release of Rise Again, a new songbook by the creators of the widely known and loved songbook, Rise Up Singing. The concert will feature Annie Patterson and Peter Blood, the creators of Rise Up Singing and Rise Again, teaching and leading songs out of their new book. They will be joined by Charlie King, Bill Harley, and Magpie, all of whom have songs in this new collection. The concert, beginning at 7 pm, will benefit the American Friends Service Committee’s New Hampshire Program and is organized with support from Concord Friends Meeting. Suggested donation for tickets is $20 for adults and $10 for those under 18. Clickhere for information and tickets.
Governing under the Influence Update – The AFSC project to get candidates talking about the excessive power of corporations that profit from militarism and prisons has sparked dozens of conversations with candidates in New Hampshire and Iowa. Find out what they’ve been talking about, where the candidates will be next, and how you can get involved by visiting the GUI website.
ACLU Bill of Rights Dinner - Arnie Alpert will receive a “Bill of Rights Award” from the NH ACLU at their annual fundraiser, Sunday, October 4, in Manchester. Click here for more information and to buy tickets.
"Metamorphosis Two: The Corporation Strikes Back," a musical-historical-comedy written by Arnie Alpert will get its Concord debut performance on Tuesday, October 13 at the Concord Unitarian Universalist Church at 6:30 pm. Sponsored by the Culture of Peace and Nonviolence Forum, this production asks the all-important question, "if corporations are people, can they sing?"
More Announcements
Saturday, September 19 – NAACP 5K Unity Walk for Justice, 10AM - 1:30PM, Manchester City Hall. Join the Manchester NAACP and other concerned organizations and individuals as we walk in solidarity with community members across the nation who support responsible policing and citizens across the nation in response to police misconduct and institutionalized racist practices.
September 24 - "Shatter the Silence: 2015 conference on workplace violence," 8:30 am to 4 pm at IBEW Local 490, 48 Airport Rd., Concord NH. Sponsored by NH COSH. Info 603-232-4406.
September 26 - Benefit concert and potluck to benefit Delfeayo Marsalis Uptown Music Theatre in New Orleans at the Henniker Congregational Church. Potluck 5 pm, Concert 7 pm. Tickets $10 adults, $5 student. Sponsored by Henniker Peace Community. Call Barbara French at (603) 428-3366 for information.
September 27 and 28 - America Votes will hold a 2-day skills training workshop at Pembroke Academy to help emerging leaders develop skills in developing campaigns, creating powerful messages, working with volunteers and more. For information, contact Paula Hodges, America Votes, NH State Director, phodges@americavotes.org , (603) 361-2685 (cell) (603) 225-1932 (office).
October 9 - New American Africans "Family Fun Night" at Immaculate Heart of Mary Church, 180 Loudon Rd, Concord. $10 donation suggested. Info on Facebook.
October 17- Israel/Palestine: Shadows of the Past- Visions of the Future, 8:45 am - 4:00 pm, with Dr. Alice Rothchild, Skip Shiel, Nancy Murray, and Revs. John and Faye Buttrick. Sponsored by the Palestine Education Network, at Rivier University, 420 South Main Street, Nashua, NH. Free and open to the public with optional $8.95 lunch.
With best wishes,
Arnie and Maggie
The AFSC is a Quaker organization supported by people of many faiths who care about peace, social justice, humanitarian service, and nonviolent change. Arnie Alpert and Maggie Fogarty direct the New Hampshire Program, publish the newsletter, and co-host the “State House Watch” radio show on WNHN-FM. Susan Bruce helps with research and writing. Fred Portnoy, WNHN Station Manager, produces the radio show. "State House Watch" is made possible in part by a grant from the Anne Slade Frey Charitable Trust.
If you value our work, please consider making a donation. Just go to our web page, and click on the "Donate Now" button. Thanks
Members of the NH House and Senate returned to Concord for the day on Wednesday, September 16. The previously scheduled special session to conduct votes on overrides of 10 gubernatorial vetoes took on additional importance when Governor Hassan, Senate President Morse, and Speaker of the House Jasper announced the previous day that they had reached agreement on a compromise budget.
When the dust settled after a raucous day – at least in the House – legislators had approved a state budget and sustained Governor Hassan’s vetoes of the eight non-budget bills.
State House attention will now shift to the 2016 session and to bills which were retained in House committees or re-referred to Senate committees. Meetings of new study committees are also scheduled. See below for highlights.
Attention will also shift to the 2016 election. Watch for an announcement from Governor Hassan about her political ambitions.
The Budget
To recap, Governor Hassan vetoed the budget at the end of June for three major reasons: it did not include funds for a negotiated pay raise for state employees; it did not reauthorize or fund the extension of the NH Health Protection Program; and it cut business taxes without balancing the cuts with other revenue. The Governor did agree with legislators on a continuing resolution that kept state operations going based on funding levels in the budget for the previous fiscal year that ended June 30. During the summer, Governor Hassan offered a compromise that included business tax cuts paid for with revenue increases from other sources, but this was initially rejected by House and Senate leaders.
The agreement which formed the basis for Wednesday’s vote approved funds for the pay raise. It also cut the Business Enterprise Tax and the Business Profits Tax in two steps, but with a threshold level of revenue that must be reached before the second step would go into effect.
The process agreed upon by the deal-makers called for the pay raise and the tax cut to be incorporated into a new bill, SB 9, and for the budget which Governor Hassan had vetoed back in June to be approved. Because it was introduced after the regular session deadline, the consideration of SB 9 required a two-thirds vote to “suspend the rules.” Likewise, the approval of the budget – HB 1 and HB 2 – would require a two-thirds majority to override the governor’s veto.
On the Senate side, the procedural votes--the vote on SB 9, and the votes of HB 1 and HB 2-- were unanimous.
The House votes were rather more contentious, with the faction led by former Speaker Bill O’Brien aiming to block the budget proposal. There were also votes on three amendments aiming to tack the substance of three vetoed bills (voter suppression, guns and Planet Fitness) onto the budget, plus another one challenging funds for a new Merrimack County courthouse. All four amendments were defeated by large margins. Finally, SB 9 was adopted 291 to 73. (Three Democrats joined 70 Republicans in voting “no.”)HB 1, the budget itself, was approved by a 321 – 25 vote overriding the governor’s veto, with three Democrats joining 22 Republicans in opposition. HB 2, the budget “trailer bill,” was approved 326 – 21, with two Democrats joining 19 Republicans in opposition.
As much as we are pleased with the enactment of a budget and the appropriation of funds for a well-deserved state employee pay raise, we are concerned about the impact of business tax cuts on a state that never seems to have adequate funds for needed services. Jeff McLynch of the NH Fiscal Policy Institute commented, "It should be clear from the past nine months of budget deliberations that New Hampshire already lacks sufficient resources to meet its needs. Reducing revenue still further will only make it harder to maintain our roads, educate our children, and provide health, safety, and other public services essential to a strong economy and shared prosperity for all in the Granite State.”
We also want to signal our distress that re-authorization of the NH Health Protection Program was not included in the budget deal. While we are glad to know Senate leadership has made a commitment to take this up after the new year begins, we think the stress this puts on recipients and providers of health care is uncalled for.
Finally, we want to thank the members of NH Voices of Faith for another day of strong witness in the State House halls.
Vetoes
There were eight other bills, four each from the House and Senate, which had been vetoed and were subjects of override votes. A two-thirds vote in both chambers would have been required for the veto to be overridden. With Democratic allies of Governor Hassan holding more than one-third of the seats in both chambers, her vetoes were all sustained on essentially partisan votes.
These vetoed bills were:
HB 332, relative to school district policy regarding objectionable course material, sustained 226 – 148.
HB 449, relative to the duration of child support, sustained 229 – 151.
HB 550, relative to administration of the tobacco tax and relative to the sale or exchange of an interest in a business organization under the business profits tax (the Planet Fitness tax giveaway), sustained 230 – 147.
HB 603, relative to student exemption from the statewide assessment, sustained 211 – 141.
SB 101, an act prohibiting the state from requiring implementation of Common Core standards, sustained 13 – 11, with Senator Stiles joining the Democrats.
SB 116, repealing the license requirement for carrying a concealed pistol or revolver, sustained 14 – 10.
SB 169, relative to the use of electronic benefits transfer (EBT) cards, sustained 14 – 10.
SB 179, relative to eligibility to vote and relative to availability of voter information, sustained 13 -11, with Senator Little joining the Democrats.
Today is the deadline for House members to propose legislation for the 2016 session. The window for Senators to propose bills is October 13 to November 3.
Coming Up at the State House
Monday, September 21, 2015
Continuing Resolution Work Group: Sununu Youth Services Center Transformation Plan, 1:00 p.m. Room 100, SH Work Session
Interbranch Criminal and Juvenile Justice Council, 1:30 p.m. Room 204, LOB, Regular Meeting
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Committee to Study Public Access to Political Campaign Information (SB 92), 9:30 a.m. Room 100, SH, Regular Meeting
House Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee
10:00 a.m. Subcommittee work session on retained HB 605-FN, repealing mandatory minimum sentences, Room 206, LOB
10:00 a.m. Subcommittee work session on retained bills HB 240, prohibiting law enforcement agencies from using a drone to collect evidence; HB 602-FN, relative to the use of drones, Room 306, LOB
2:00 p.m. Subcommittee work session on retained bills HB 617-FN-A, requiring state police to wear a camera when interacting with the public; HB 583-FN, requiring state law enforcement officers to wear a camera when interacting with the public and making an appropriation therefor, with Executive Departments and Administration Committee, Room 306, LOB
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Committee to Study Public Access to Political Campaign Information (SB 92), 9:30 a.m. Room 100, SH Regular Meeting
Committee to Study the Classifications of Military Vehicles and Equipment that may be Purchased by the State and its Political Subdivisions (HB 407, Chapter 232:1, Laws of 2015) 10:00 a.m. Room 301, LOB Organizational Meeting
Legislative Service Requests (proposals for new bills)
As noted above, today is the deadline for House members to submit the titles of bills they intend to introduce in 2016. At the time we are writing this, there are 279 LSRs posted on the General Court’s website. Check this site next week for a complete list.
At this time all we know are the bills' titles. Here are some that caught our attention, with the name of the sponsor:
“relative to earned time credits for prisoners participating in rehabilitative programming, “ Rep. David Welch
“reducing business taxes, repealing the education tax, and establishing an income tax,” Rep. Paul Henle
“extending the New Hampshire health protection program,” Rep. Thomas Sherman
“relative to charges imposed upon New Hampshire residents for the construction of natural gas pipelines,” Rep. James McConnell
“relative to sanctuary cities,” Rep. John Potucek
“extending the penalty of death to acts of terrorism and civil rights offenses,” Rep. Jack Flanagan
“relative to inquiries by employers into the criminal history of applicants for employment,” Rep. Frank Heffron
“relative to conversion therapy seeking to change a person's sexual orientation,” Rep. Eric Schleien
“relative to disqualifying members of certain groups from receiving public assistance,” Rep. Kenneth Weyler
“relative to minimum and maximum sentences for felony convictions,” Rep. Robert Cushing
“requiring drug testing of public assistance recipients,” Rep. Don Leeman
“implementing a bottle deposit program,” Rep. Travis Bennett
Survey on Family Friendly Workplaces
Terie Norelli, President & CEO of the NH Women’s Foundation wants to hear from you: “What you think makes a family friendly workplace, how important that is to you, and what your experience has been here in our state. If you live or work in New Hampshire, please take this survey. It will take less than ten minutes, and the feedback will be very important to us.”
Click here to take the survey. Thanks.
AFSC Announcements
“What a Difference 40 Years Can Make,” October 24 - The AFSC’s NH Program turns 40 years old this fall! Join us to celebrate on Saturday, October 24 in Concord. The event will feature a catered dinner and a program with stories from friends including Rep. Renny Cushing, Valerie Cunningham, Sister Madonna Moran, Honoré Murenzi, Molly Messenger, John Gforerer, Rev. Sandra Pontoh, and more. Click here for information and to sign up.
Rise Again, October 10 ---A singalong concert featuring several renowned folk musicians will be held at the Concord Community Music School on Saturday, October 10, 2015 to celebrate the release of Rise Again, a new songbook by the creators of the widely known and loved songbook, Rise Up Singing. The concert will feature Annie Patterson and Peter Blood, the creators of Rise Up Singing and Rise Again, teaching and leading songs out of their new book. They will be joined by Charlie King, Bill Harley, and Magpie, all of whom have songs in this new collection. The concert, beginning at 7 pm, will benefit the American Friends Service Committee’s New Hampshire Program and is organized with support from Concord Friends Meeting. Suggested donation for tickets is $20 for adults and $10 for those under 18. Clickhere for information and tickets.
Governing under the Influence Update – The AFSC project to get candidates talking about the excessive power of corporations that profit from militarism and prisons has sparked dozens of conversations with candidates in New Hampshire and Iowa. Find out what they’ve been talking about, where the candidates will be next, and how you can get involved by visiting the GUI website.
ACLU Bill of Rights Dinner - Arnie Alpert will receive a “Bill of Rights Award” from the NH ACLU at their annual fundraiser, Sunday, October 4, in Manchester. Click here for more information and to buy tickets.
"Metamorphosis Two: The Corporation Strikes Back," a musical-historical-comedy written by Arnie Alpert will get its Concord debut performance on Tuesday, October 13 at the Concord Unitarian Universalist Church at 6:30 pm. Sponsored by the Culture of Peace and Nonviolence Forum, this production asks the all-important question, "if corporations are people, can they sing?"
More Announcements
Saturday, September 19 – NAACP 5K Unity Walk for Justice, 10AM - 1:30PM, Manchester City Hall. Join the Manchester NAACP and other concerned organizations and individuals as we walk in solidarity with community members across the nation who support responsible policing and citizens across the nation in response to police misconduct and institutionalized racist practices.
September 24 - "Shatter the Silence: 2015 conference on workplace violence," 8:30 am to 4 pm at IBEW Local 490, 48 Airport Rd., Concord NH. Sponsored by NH COSH. Info 603-232-4406.
September 26 - Benefit concert and potluck to benefit Delfeayo Marsalis Uptown Music Theatre in New Orleans at the Henniker Congregational Church. Potluck 5 pm, Concert 7 pm. Tickets $10 adults, $5 student. Sponsored by Henniker Peace Community. Call Barbara French at (603) 428-3366 for information.
September 27 and 28 - America Votes will hold a 2-day skills training workshop at Pembroke Academy to help emerging leaders develop skills in developing campaigns, creating powerful messages, working with volunteers and more. For information, contact Paula Hodges, America Votes, NH State Director, phodges@americavotes.org , (603) 361-2685 (cell) (603) 225-1932 (office).
October 9 - New American Africans "Family Fun Night" at Immaculate Heart of Mary Church, 180 Loudon Rd, Concord. $10 donation suggested. Info on Facebook.
October 17- Israel/Palestine: Shadows of the Past- Visions of the Future, 8:45 am - 4:00 pm, with Dr. Alice Rothchild, Skip Shiel, Nancy Murray, and Revs. John and Faye Buttrick. Sponsored by the Palestine Education Network, at Rivier University, 420 South Main Street, Nashua, NH. Free and open to the public with optional $8.95 lunch.
With best wishes,
Arnie and Maggie
The AFSC is a Quaker organization supported by people of many faiths who care about peace, social justice, humanitarian service, and nonviolent change. Arnie Alpert and Maggie Fogarty direct the New Hampshire Program, publish the newsletter, and co-host the “State House Watch” radio show on WNHN-FM. Susan Bruce helps with research and writing. Fred Portnoy, WNHN Station Manager, produces the radio show. "State House Watch" is made possible in part by a grant from the Anne Slade Frey Charitable Trust.
If you value our work, please consider making a donation. Just go to our web page, and click on the "Donate Now" button. Thanks
American Friends Service Committee 4 Park Street Concord, NH 03301 http://afsc.org |
2. News & Notes
NH1 News Political Report: Sept. 17, 2015
by Kevin Landrigan, nh1.com, September 17, 2015
CONCORD - There’s a very interesting provision in the compromise budget deal that reveals some deep-seated suspicion among Republican legislative leaders.
It all has to do with the so-called trigger in the business tax cuts, the point by Dec. 31, 2017 when the state has to verify that all revenues for the previous biennium had reached a stated benchmark in this case, $4.64 bill.
The kicker: Who does the counting?
It’s the Legislative Budget Assistant Michael Kane who only took this job two weeks ago upon the retirement of longtime LBA Jeff Pattison.
Here’s what makes this unusual. You would always have the Department of Revenue Administration, the tax regulatory agency, looking at the tax structure and determining how much came in or didn’t during a certain period.
Revenue Commissioner John Beardmore is highly regarded by GOP legislative leaders. This is not about him but it is an institutional feud.
And it’s got some history.
The last time GOP lawmakers cut taxes was in 2011 when then-House Speaker Bill O’Brien, R-Mont Vernon, engineering the first cut in the tobacco tax in New Hampshire history.
But again he only got then-Gov. John Lynch to agree not to veto the tax cut by putting in a trigger that would have the tax cut go away if tobacco taxes declined after the first year of experience.
Well when that first report came in tobacco taxes had come up short and the tax cut was eliminated.
GOP legislative leaders have told the New Hampshire Political Report they suspected since that very day that mid-level bureaucrats in the DRA deliberately held back the purchase of tobacco tax stamps and didn’t report them until after the June 30 fiscal year had ended.
In their view having the LBA do the math would give lawmakers more confidence there wasn’t any reporting of the revenue with an eye towards wanting the second half of the business tax to happen or not.
------------------------------
By the way another thing that drew out these negotiations were what made up the trigger.
Lawmakers close to Hassan wanted it to be based on revenue from business taxes alone; why should tax cut backers get to keep them if other taxes that had nothing to do with the break went up enough to overcome slumping business receipts?
But GOP legislative leaders are only too well aware from past history that business tax performance closely parallels economic cycles.
Another slumping recession or a booming recovery would do more to deflate or enhance business tax collections more than any state tax cut would.
So they finally agreed to compromise on all revenues; this does put some emphasis on business taxes since they make up nearly 30 percent of receipts.
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Here’s what you haven’t been told about the departure of former Senate President Peter Bragdon as CEO of the New Hampshire Health Trust.
Bragdon is right publicly when he states the agency has a better image with the political establishment and is on more sound financial footing than it was when he took over more than two years ago.
That’s why, however, you keep him on the job, not why you let him leave.
They gave Bragdon his walking papers plain and simply because as the onetime powerful legislative leader he had one political task to accomplish and he failed miserably at it.
Job one: Get the so-called Local Government Center out of the hostile regulatory clutches of Secretary of State Bill Gardner and into the friendly confines of the Department of Insurance.
Bragdon tried in two straight budgets to get that done and came up short.
In fairness to Bragdon, this was not any layup at all. He had in his corner both President Chuck Morse, R-Salem, and Senate Finance Chairwoman Jeanie Forrester, R-Meredith but so much push back to the LGC which had nothing to do with Bragdon.
Now there’s a national search for Bragdon’s replacement and General Counsel David Frydman is the interim executive.
Frydman used to be legal counsel when Democrat Terie Norelli of Portsmouth was speaker of the New Hampshire House.
Don’t ask bipartisan senators and staff their opinions of Frydman; they often locked horns and again Frydman was just carrying out the House position but that’s the irony.
For the time being, the LGC/Health Trust goes from someone everyone in the Senate was fond of (Bragdon) to someone who they are not (Frydman).
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We should have known something was up when Stefany Shaheen, the eldest daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-NH, would look down the barrel at a certain trip to become mayor of Portsmouth and say, ``No thanks.’’
When Portsmouth Mayor Robert Lister passed on his own re-election, the mayor’s spot (top council vote getter) was Shaheen’s for the asking.
But like New Hampshire Democrats are famous for, the power elite was already making plans.
Who’s behind the we want SS for Governor movement? Let’s start with Emily’s List, the largest political action committee on the left and the one dedicated to supporting mostly women, pro-choice candidates for high office.
They were behind the push to the elder Shaheen to first run for governor and for Maggie Hassan to first run for the State Senate and then the corner office.
In case you hadn’t noticed, Hassan has been looking more and more like a candidate for Senate rather than one for re-election. She’s appeared with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-NH, three times in the past month and twice enlisted Shaheen to help her make a state budget pitch.
Hassan’s also appeared with Ayotte at two public events including side by side at the Labor Day parade in Milford.
And many believe that the deal she made on the state budget [-] to cut both business taxes and give a pay raise to state workers [-] helps blunt charges that she had become a partisan chief executive and a tax and spender.
Meanwhile, leading Democrats are given the brazen okay to talk openly about the prospects of a Hassan Senate campaign as US Rep. Annie Kuster, D-NH, did earlier this week.
This will be no coronation if it comes to pass, however.
Councilor Colin Van Ostern, D-Concord, has been waiting in the wings for Hassan to make the call and would not move an inch until Hassan made the move.
And Van Ostern has his fans. Progressives Change Campaign Committee are their own real force on the left and they raised $1 million to draft Elizabeth Warren to run for and win the US Senate seat in Massachusetts from Republican Scott Brown.
The New Hampshire Political Report obtained an e-mail survey they had sent out on Thursday without advance notice this would be the day the Stefany Shaheen speculation would leak.
"As you know, New Hampshire has many exciting races on the ballot next year. Not just for president. If Maggie Hassan runs for Senate, the Senate and Governor races will be super exciting, wrote Adam Green, PCCC co-founder.
Here’s how they show enthusiasm for Van Ostern in their self-described, ``super-short survey.”
"If Maggie Hassan runs for US Senate, some New Hampshire activists say that progressive Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern [-] who has advocated for debt-free college and to protect Planned Parenthood [-] should run for governor. Do you think he should?’’
It then asks you if ``Are there others you think should run for governor if Maggie Hassan runs for US Senate?’’
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We saw firsthand here how prickly presidential candidates get in the first-primary state when they are dogged by local press.
This week’s exhibit was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie who after a campaign stop with Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas gets cornered an indefinite suspension football player Leonte Carroo at Rutgers University for an altercation outside the stadium and whether it means Christie has lost confidence in the coach.
"They are having disciplinary problems with teenagers. This is not shocking. I’m a father of four; I’m having disciplinary problems with teenagers. It is the normal course on a college campus,’’ Christie exploded.
"The breathless media coverage of this and every time there’s a problem it’s an indication of some deep-seated problem at Rutgers. Man, you guys gotta find something else to do and I’ve certainly got more important things to do than worry about what wide receiver was suspended for a few games recently.
"Being governor of New Jersey and running for President is a little more important than that.’’
Here’s the curious postscript. Less than 48 hours after Christie’s outburst in Manchester, Rutgers Football Coach Kyle Flood got suspended for three games and fined $50,000 for contacting faculty about the grades of his former cornerback.
Both Flood and the cornerback, Nadir Barnwell, admitted the coach made minor changes to a paper the student submitted.
A legislative committee to bird dog future pay raises for public employees.
It was enshrined in state law for more than 20 years and was so little used that lawmakers let the panel dissolve itself and go out of existence.
Now with the new compromise a reconstituted Joint Committee on Employee Relations and Senate President Chuck Morse, R-Salem, is made its chairman for 2015-2016.
"I just think it makes sense for the Legislature to be more involved in this and think we should have been in the past,’’ Morse told the New Hampshire Political Report.
They both finished so well out of the running in their own campaigns for President, but Republican Jon Huntsman and Democrat Joe Lieberman say they’ll always consider New Hampshire a special place.
Lieberman came in fifth in 2004 despite having rented an apartment in Manchester so he could spend nearly full-time in the state in the six weeks leading up to the primary.
Huntsman did better, but his third-place showing still left him out of the money and he was passed by.
"I’ll always feel like it’s my second home,’’ Huntsman said.
Lieberman chipped in ``Special memories, made friendships that I’ll never forget and will always be grateful for how me and my entire family were treated in the state.’’
The two were promoting the ``No Labels’’ Campaign calling for bipartisanship to solve the nation’s problems.
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Another potential congressional candidate finds other employment.
Longtime BAE executive and former 1st District hopeful Rich Ashooh of Bedford is out of the potential running for that seat in 2016 after having taken over as interim president of the UNH School of Law.
"There’s a fantastic group on this campus that already is going to make me look very good,’’ Ashooh said during a brief interview at NH1. ``I’m very excited about this opportunity and going to be going 95 miles an hour to prove worthy of their trust in me.’’
Ashooh was widely viewed as a serious challenger to US Rep. Frank Guinta’s bid for a third term in 2016 if that race had come to pass.
Guinta already has a real fight on his hands as 2014 candidate and Portsmouth businessman/educator Dan Innis is exploring another go at it next year.
------------------------------
House Speaker Shawn Jasper, R-Hudson, learned just how awestruck his peers are about the New Hampshire experience.
Jasper spent much of the end of last week at the summer meeting of the State Legislative Leaders Foundation in Nashville, TN.
The Hudson Republican came bearing gifts for his 50 counterparts as House leaders, giving each one a commemorative New Hampshire license plate that highlights our first-in the-nation primary tradition.
House speakers who feel preyed upon count their blessings at hearing about Jasper having to corral more than 395 members.
"They think they have it hard to build consensus,’’ Jasper quipped upon his return.
------------------------------
Sure it’s a little late but there continue to be head scratchers at the timing and manner of Chris Sununu’s bid for governor in 2016.
Sununu chose to make the announcement without warning or alerting reporters to even bother showing up at an otherwise routine, Labor Day party in his hometown of Salem.
Fortunately for Sununu, 2016 GOP contender Scott Walker was stopping in at the holiday celebration so some reporters were there including NH1 News Political Director Paul Steinhauser.
Even Democrats who don’t wish Sununu well publicly cringe at the move since they know as fellow politicians Sununu did not get the media bang or buzz he should have gotten from it.
"I mean don’t they drop news about scandals during the Labor Day holiday weekend,’’ joked Senate Democratic Leader Jeff Woodburn of Dalton. ``It’s a day you put out news you don’t want to get covered. It was strange to say the least.’’
All that said, Sununu’s early move will lead to its intended result: it should convince many prominent Republicans in the state to reconsider going for the corner office.
Speaker Jasper topples O’Brien – again
Capital Beat, by Allie Morris, concordmonitor.com, September 19, 2015
If you’re keeping score, it’s two to nothing in the ongoing face-off between Republicans Shawn Jasper and Bill O’Brien.
The Legislative session kicked off last year with the men battling to be Speaker of the House. O’Brien had support from the majority of Republicans, but Jasper won the gavel with help from Democrats.
The rivalry reared its head again last week, when a contingent of Republicans led by O’Brien tried unsuccessfully to derail the state budget deal they said was hatched in a back room and didn’t get enough public input.
The squabble shows that a party rift still divides the chamber, although it’s smaller than in the past.
While Jasper again drew support from Democrats to pass the spending agreement Wednesday, this time he had backing from a majority of the Republicans.
Of the 222 Republicans present, only 70 voted against the compromise spending plan. Some interpret the dwindling minority as a sign that O’Brien is losing sway.
The vote also revealed how Jasper and his leadership team are managing the division: by patching together a coalition of Democrats and Republicans.
He’s likely to use this same method that helped the budget pass – calling upon the Democrats that helped him rise to power – to pursue controversial, bipartisan legislation in the second year of the session.
Reauthorizing the state’s Medicaid expansion program is poised to become that next big legislative battle.
While insiders say Jasper doesn’t want his legacy to include taking away health coverage for more than 40,000 people who have already signed up for the program, he also wants any reauthorization proposal to get approval from a majority of House Republicans.
That could be tricky. While Democrats widely support continuation of Medicaid expansion, many Republicans are skeptical.
“The Republican caucus has already taken a position that they are not supporting Medicaid expansion,” said House Majority Leader Jack Flanagan. “A number of members have said they could support it if it was paid for.”
Republican Senators who helped craft the state’s Medicaid expansion deal are searching for a solution.
“We’re going to have to figure out how to pay for it,” said Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, who helped craft the original Medicaid expansion bill. “There’s ways that we can pay for it without burdening New Hampshire taxpayers, but it’s going to take a big effort.”
The Medicaid expansion program is set to expire at the end of 2016, unless lawmakers vote to reauthorize it. And, federal funding for the program is set to begin ratcheting down over the next few years. It means the state is on the hook for roughly $12 million in the next two fiscal years to support the health care plan. Republicans don’t want to pay for it all with state dollars, didn’t include the money in the state budget and are on the hunt for other alternatives.
More than 41,000 residents have signed onto the healthcare program. Some point to the program as a critical piece of the state’s plan to deal with drug addiction, since Medicaid expansion offers coverage for substance abuse treatment.
The Senate is much more likely to pass an expansion deal, and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan is an outspoken supporter of Medicaid expansion, which again, puts the spotlight squarely on the House.
Jasper said Wednesday he has always been open to the debate.
“What’s clear from the House perspective is there has to be a way to fund this without putting that expense on the taxpayers of the state of New Hampshire,” he said.
Any solution will likely need another patchwork party coalition and could become a major debate in the chamber. The outcome of that battle, however, could depend on whether O’Brien, and the group of Republicans, remain relevant or if the trend of bipartisan compromise reigns.
O’Brien, who thinks the Medicaid expansion program is “disastrous,” says he will continue to fulfill his term and “talk with those folks who come to me for advice.”
While he may play a role in the discussion, it’s not clear whether he will actually cast a vote.
O’Brien wasn’t one of the 70 Republicans who voted against the budget bill Wednesday or one of the 152 who voted for it. He left before casting a ballot. The Mont Vernon Republican said he needed to catch a flight out of Boston for business.
Full funding, ish
Senate President Chuck Morse applauded the budget lawmakers passed last week, saying it will fully fund a key substance abuse treatment fund for just the second time since its creation.
It’s an especially pertinent point, given more than 320 people died last year from drug overdoses. But his statement is a little misleading.
Yes, the state budget will fully fund the officially titled, Alcohol Abuse Prevention and Treatment Fund. But, important to note is that lawmakers rewrote the funding formula in the budget by significantly dropping the amount of money needed to “fully fund” it.
Instead of the original 5 percent of gross state alcohol profits – that would translate to roughly $17 million – the fund will now receive 1.7 percent of profits. That means the fund gets $6.7 million over the next two budget years. So the formula change shorts the fund about $10 million.
But – as Morse correctly notes – lawmakers have rarely followed the formula they put into law more than a decade ago. Instead, legislators have typically picked a dollar amount of their own choosing to funnel into the fund, and it’s usually far less money than the fund would get if the formula were followed.
So in fact, the new state budget will actually double the fund’s balance from the last budget. Full funding?
You decide.
Lawmakers do acknowledge a pressing need to deal with drug addition in the state, which ranks second to last nationally when it comes to availability of substance abuse treatment.
Bradley said last week lawmakers may consider additional funding to combat drug addiction in the coming months.
Calling all youth
Lost in the Republican vs. Republican budget battle in the House, was a question from Rep. Adam Schroadter about what the state spending bill would do to retain the state’s young people.
It’s an interesting query. Lawmakers, many of whom sport gray hair, are often talking about the need to keep young people in the state, as the state’s population continues to age.
New Hampshire is one of the oldest state’s in the nation. The average age of the 24-member State Senate is roughly 59 years old.
Republican Rep. Dick Hinch, a key player in the state budget deal, took on the question:
The business tax cuts, he said, would attract businesses that provide opportunities.
And, “If we’re able to pass this budget this afternoon, the uncertainty about the state of New Hampshire’s ability to put a budget forward gives certainty to the young people who would like to stay here or come here.”
If we’re betting on legislative certainty to attract young people, it may be a while.
Start spinning
After three months of wrangling, lawmakers finally reached a budget deal last week and the back patting has begun. In anticipation of the next elections, state parties are already on the attack, hammering both sides as budget losers.
So what is the spin shaping up to so far?
The Dems are using the budget to trumpet Hassan as a “strong bipartisan leader,” and laying blame at U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s feet.
“It’s unfortunate that because of Kelly Ayotte’s political meddling it took so long for Republicans in the legislature to finally come to the table and negotiate in good faith,” said state party chairman Ray Buckley in a statement.
Meanwhile, the GOP is using the budget to criticize Hassan for causing gridlock and bringing partisanship to Concord. They label Hassan’s support for the budget – that includes the business tax cuts she criticized – a flip-flop.
“After throwing the whole budget process into chaos by refusing to work across the aisle to solve a problem she created, Gov. Hassan’s historic flip-flop on her veto shows this was nothing more than a political stunt at the expense of New Hampshire families,” said Jennifer Horn, chairwoman of the state GOP.
It’s likely lines that will come up again and again as 2016 draws closer.
Add one more to the list
As the state waits for a decision on 2016 from two-term Gov. Maggie Hassan, the list of potential Democratic candidates in line to take her place is growing ever longer.
Stefany Shaheen, daughter of former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, said last week she would consider a run for governor, if Hassan decides to run for U.S. Senate.
That puts her in a mix of names that include Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern and Sen. Andrew Hosmer.
Republican Chris Sununu is the only candidate who has officially jumped into the race.
But in some cases, it’s like the democratic gubernatorial primary has already begun. U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster said last week she hopes Hassan runs against Ayotte and Van Ostern mounts a bid for governor.
“If she runs, I will support Colin Van Ostern for governor,” she said. “I expect he will run.”
A budget emerges to avoid blame
from State House Dome, by Garry Rayno, unionleader.com, September 19, 2015
THE FINAL chapter in the Great Budget Standoff of 2016 is at last complete.
Political partisan bickering and maneuvering were put aside for a couple days as House leadership worked feverishly to garner the votes for a two-thirds majority to allow the compromise plan to come before the House.
The 160 House Democrats were largely on board with the urging of Gov. Maggie Hassan, but about 120 Republicans were needed to seal the deal.
Wednesday morning the House leadership handed out assignments to committee chairmen and vice chairmen to assure their underlings were on board.
House and Senate leaders knew that if the deal failed in the House, the blame would be squarely on Republicans in the public's eye, not on the governor.
The biggest obstacle to passage was former Speaker Bill O'Brien, who said Tuesday he opposed the compromise because it increased spending (state worker pay raise), needed public input, and the continuing resolution saving millions of dollars each month should stay in place. The question was how many of the 100 or so members of the Republican Majority Caucus would vote with O'Brien.
House Speaker Shawn Jasper allowed O'Brien to make his case to the Republican caucus and then got up and repudiated much of what the former speaker said, setting the stage for a heated exchange between the two on the House floor later in the day.
When the bill came to the floor, O'Brien and his troops threw roadblock after roadblock up trying to scuttle the deal. As the debate progressed, their support slipped.
When the vote to suspend the rules to let the bill into the House after it had passed the Senate on a 24-0 vote, the lower chamber joined the parade by a comfortable margin.
The deal was done, 291-73, with 151 Republican votes — a majority of the GOP caucus — and all that remained was running out the clock, which took longer than anticipated as members of the Republican Majority Caucus tried to attach bills that had been killed that day because lawmakers failed to override vetoes.
In the end, the people who passed the compromise plan are the same people who made Jasper speaker over O'Brien, Democrats and non-Tea Party or Libertarian Republicans. If Jasper can hold that coalition together, he has a comfortable majority to help him accomplish what he wants to finish during his first term as speaker.
Winners and losers
The $11.35 billion budget was a status quo budget, containing few new initiatives outside of increased money to combat the heroin epidemic sweeping the state.
Substance abuse treatment, prevention and rehabilitation providers should see the biggest boost from the budget, but most of the infrastructure for those programs will have to be built over the next six months.
Home-based care providers received their first boost in rates in a half dozen years.
State aid for charter schools will increase and for growing school districts — there are not many — but the change in public education aid comes at the expense of many school districts, including the five Claremont communities that sued the state and Manchester, Nashua, Laconia, etc.
Big corporations win under the business profits tax cuts, but smaller business will not see the same bang for the buck from the business enterprise tax reductions.
Cities and towns will be able to have tax rates set a little sooner, and will see less downshifting of costs than in the previous four or five budgets. The Community College System of New Hampshire received almost as much state money as officials requested but the University System of New Hampshire will see less state aid than if the continuing resolution remained in place for two years.
Hassan, Senate President Chuck Morse, Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, Jasper and House Majority Whip Richard Hinch certainly can claim victory as they negotiated the final compromise, knowing something had to be done because real pain was around the corner under the continuing resolution.
The settlement now allows Morse, Bradley and Senate Finance Chairman Jeanie Forrester to sort out who among them — maybe two — will run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, particularly if Hassan decides to run for Senate against Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
The state's political landscape could be very different in 2016 because the budget is done.
Also look for several of Hassan's “cabinet” to step aside now the budget is done.
Goodbye
The horse and dog racing industry once supplied the state with a steady source of money when the tracks had live racing and people flocked to the facilities to place their bets.
That has not been true for some time.
In recent years, the charitable gaming industry has greatly outpaced racing as a money generator.
The budget approved last week eliminates the Racing and Charitable Gaming Commission Racing and moves its responsibilities to the Lottery Commission.
Early in the budget process, Hassan proposed the change and despite the best efforts of both the racing and charitable trust industries, they were not able to convince enough lawmakers to reserve course.
The current members of the commission will serve out their terms although they will have nothing to do.
Long-time chairman Timothy “Ted” Connors, the former director of the Portsmouth Housing Authority, has been with the commission almost since it began; well, maybe not since it began, but he has been on what was originally the Pari-Mutuel Commission for almost 50 years.
Retired employees
The Joint Legislative Fiscal Committee will hear a plan to increase the cost of state-supplied health insurance for retired state employees.
The Department of Administrative Services, which administers the program, faces rectifying a more than $10 million shortfall between estimated costs and the money lawmakers approved for the program.
Under the plan, retirees under 65 years old would have to pay 15 percent of the premium, up from the current rate of 12.5 percent, beginning April 1, 2016, according to Vicki Quiram, DAS commissioner.
Information sent to the Fiscal Committee said the increase is predicated on lawmakers fast-tracking a bill giving the panel the authority to approve the change, and to charge retirees over 65, who are on Medicare supplemental insurance, for part of their premiums.
Currently, those over 65 do not pay part of their premium for the supplemental insurance.
Those over 65 would have a $500 deductible — there is none now — and would have their prescription co-pays increase as it would for those under 65 as well.
Non-Medicare retirees would see deductibles double for in-network services and more than double for out-of-network care.
The changes coupled with using $4.1 million of the program's $5.6 million reserve would eliminate the shortfall over the next two years, Quiram said.
But she warned lawmakers these changes are one-time fixes and short-term at best.
“DAS has also been looking at other new and innovative options for the future that will take additional time to coordinate with retirees and to research, evaluate and implement,” Quiram writes to the committee. “Among the options DAS will have to consider are limited networks, defined contribution plans as well as other innovations that other private and public employers may have implemented.”
The Fiscal Committee meets Friday at 10 a.m. in the Legislative Office Building.
Political partisan bickering and maneuvering were put aside for a couple days as House leadership worked feverishly to garner the votes for a two-thirds majority to allow the compromise plan to come before the House.
The 160 House Democrats were largely on board with the urging of Gov. Maggie Hassan, but about 120 Republicans were needed to seal the deal.
Wednesday morning the House leadership handed out assignments to committee chairmen and vice chairmen to assure their underlings were on board.
House and Senate leaders knew that if the deal failed in the House, the blame would be squarely on Republicans in the public's eye, not on the governor.
The biggest obstacle to passage was former Speaker Bill O'Brien, who said Tuesday he opposed the compromise because it increased spending (state worker pay raise), needed public input, and the continuing resolution saving millions of dollars each month should stay in place. The question was how many of the 100 or so members of the Republican Majority Caucus would vote with O'Brien.
House Speaker Shawn Jasper allowed O'Brien to make his case to the Republican caucus and then got up and repudiated much of what the former speaker said, setting the stage for a heated exchange between the two on the House floor later in the day.
When the bill came to the floor, O'Brien and his troops threw roadblock after roadblock up trying to scuttle the deal. As the debate progressed, their support slipped.
When the vote to suspend the rules to let the bill into the House after it had passed the Senate on a 24-0 vote, the lower chamber joined the parade by a comfortable margin.
The deal was done, 291-73, with 151 Republican votes — a majority of the GOP caucus — and all that remained was running out the clock, which took longer than anticipated as members of the Republican Majority Caucus tried to attach bills that had been killed that day because lawmakers failed to override vetoes.
In the end, the people who passed the compromise plan are the same people who made Jasper speaker over O'Brien, Democrats and non-Tea Party or Libertarian Republicans. If Jasper can hold that coalition together, he has a comfortable majority to help him accomplish what he wants to finish during his first term as speaker.
Winners and losers
The $11.35 billion budget was a status quo budget, containing few new initiatives outside of increased money to combat the heroin epidemic sweeping the state.
Substance abuse treatment, prevention and rehabilitation providers should see the biggest boost from the budget, but most of the infrastructure for those programs will have to be built over the next six months.
Home-based care providers received their first boost in rates in a half dozen years.
State aid for charter schools will increase and for growing school districts — there are not many — but the change in public education aid comes at the expense of many school districts, including the five Claremont communities that sued the state and Manchester, Nashua, Laconia, etc.
Big corporations win under the business profits tax cuts, but smaller business will not see the same bang for the buck from the business enterprise tax reductions.
Cities and towns will be able to have tax rates set a little sooner, and will see less downshifting of costs than in the previous four or five budgets. The Community College System of New Hampshire received almost as much state money as officials requested but the University System of New Hampshire will see less state aid than if the continuing resolution remained in place for two years.
Hassan, Senate President Chuck Morse, Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, Jasper and House Majority Whip Richard Hinch certainly can claim victory as they negotiated the final compromise, knowing something had to be done because real pain was around the corner under the continuing resolution.
The settlement now allows Morse, Bradley and Senate Finance Chairman Jeanie Forrester to sort out who among them — maybe two — will run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, particularly if Hassan decides to run for Senate against Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
The state's political landscape could be very different in 2016 because the budget is done.
Also look for several of Hassan's “cabinet” to step aside now the budget is done.
Goodbye
The horse and dog racing industry once supplied the state with a steady source of money when the tracks had live racing and people flocked to the facilities to place their bets.
That has not been true for some time.
In recent years, the charitable gaming industry has greatly outpaced racing as a money generator.
The budget approved last week eliminates the Racing and Charitable Gaming Commission Racing and moves its responsibilities to the Lottery Commission.
Early in the budget process, Hassan proposed the change and despite the best efforts of both the racing and charitable trust industries, they were not able to convince enough lawmakers to reserve course.
The current members of the commission will serve out their terms although they will have nothing to do.
Long-time chairman Timothy “Ted” Connors, the former director of the Portsmouth Housing Authority, has been with the commission almost since it began; well, maybe not since it began, but he has been on what was originally the Pari-Mutuel Commission for almost 50 years.
Retired employees
The Joint Legislative Fiscal Committee will hear a plan to increase the cost of state-supplied health insurance for retired state employees.
The Department of Administrative Services, which administers the program, faces rectifying a more than $10 million shortfall between estimated costs and the money lawmakers approved for the program.
Under the plan, retirees under 65 years old would have to pay 15 percent of the premium, up from the current rate of 12.5 percent, beginning April 1, 2016, according to Vicki Quiram, DAS commissioner.
Information sent to the Fiscal Committee said the increase is predicated on lawmakers fast-tracking a bill giving the panel the authority to approve the change, and to charge retirees over 65, who are on Medicare supplemental insurance, for part of their premiums.
Currently, those over 65 do not pay part of their premium for the supplemental insurance.
Those over 65 would have a $500 deductible — there is none now — and would have their prescription co-pays increase as it would for those under 65 as well.
Non-Medicare retirees would see deductibles double for in-network services and more than double for out-of-network care.
The changes coupled with using $4.1 million of the program's $5.6 million reserve would eliminate the shortfall over the next two years, Quiram said.
But she warned lawmakers these changes are one-time fixes and short-term at best.
“DAS has also been looking at other new and innovative options for the future that will take additional time to coordinate with retirees and to research, evaluate and implement,” Quiram writes to the committee. “Among the options DAS will have to consider are limited networks, defined contribution plans as well as other innovations that other private and public employers may have implemented.”
The Fiscal Committee meets Friday at 10 a.m. in the Legislative Office Building.
3. State Agencies and the Budget
Budget deal a sigh of relief for state agencies, programs
by Kathleen Ronayne, Associated Press, vnews.com, September 19, 2015
CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — Legislative leaders and Gov. Maggie Hassan may be cheering the newly minted state budget deal as a show of compromise that makes New Hampshire different from Washington, D.C.
But from rank and file lawmakers, state agencies and social service advocates, reactions to the deal amount to little more than, "Finally."
Almost three months after Hassan vetoed the Legislature's $11.3 billion budget, she signed a state spending plan Wednesday that makes only two major changes. It gives a pay raise to state workers that had been negotiated with the union but left out of the Legislature's budget, and it ties the second round of business tax cuts to a revenue trigger aimed at avoiding a budget hole.
For everything else — from mental health and substance abuse programs to road and bridge projects to the university and community college systems — the deal gives them exactly what they would have gotten in June. Without a budget, the state kept running at last year's spending levels under a temporary plan, leaving agencies and services without expected increases.
The new budget, for example, doubles the money in a key fund aimed at fighting drug and alcohol addiction. Spending on substance abuse under the temporary plan was "a far cry from what the true need is out there," said Kate Frey, advocacy director of nonprofit New Futures.
Because of the stalemate, home health care providers waited three months for a 5 percent rate increase, New Hampshire Hospital couldn't open a 10-bed mental health crisis unit and the Department of Transportation almost had to delay repaving projects on the turnpike system.
Among advocacy organizations and Democratic lawmakers that are part of Hassan's key constituencies, some offer a full-throated defense of her veto while others were plainly ambivalent.
"The governor had her reason for vetoing the budget, and it doesn't really matter if I agree with those reasons or don't," said Rep. Marjorie Smith, a Durham Democrat and former chair of the budget writing House Finance Committee.
Smith, like other Democrats, said the deal reached this week is far better than the vetoed plan. No Democratic lawmakers publicly challenged her veto.
"I absolutely think the governor fought tooth and nail for everything she got," said Democratic Rep. Lucy Weber of Walpole.
The lack of enthusiasm over the deal from rank-and-file lawmakers was apparent on the House and Senate floor. The only Democrats who publicly backed the plan were members of House and Senate leadership. On the Republican side, House leaders resorted to pleading with members to pass the deal.
Now that a deal is complete, all eyes turn to the 2016 elections. The budget provided cover for Hassan to delay a decision on whether to seek a third term or run for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte. The lack of a decision hasn't stopped outside groups from running negative ads about the veto and the state political parties are already in full spin mode.
"After inflicting pain and suffering on the State of New Hampshire, Gov. Hassan has been humbled by her embarrassing request to override her reckless veto," the state Republican party declared.
And the Democrats?
"It's unfortunate that because of Kelly Ayotte's political meddling it took so long for Republicans in the legislature to finally come to the table and negotiate in good faith," the state party said in a statement.
Now, voters who paid little attention to this summer's budget battle are sure to hear about it again and again, regardless of Hassan's decision.
4. Census Bits About NH: Healthcare Coverage and Poverty
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Share of NH residents without health insurance drops below 10 percent
Census survey also shows more higher-income residents and more living in poverty
by Bob Sanders, nhbr.com, September 17, 2015
Compared to five years ago, a larger percentage of New Hampshire residents have health insurance, who heat their homes with wood and who rent rather than own their homes or apartments, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey estimates, released on Thursday.
The statistics show a larger chunk of residents with a higher income, yet there is also a greater percentage of those living in poverty, particularly if they have children. And there is a greater number of foreign-born New Hampshire residents, particularly from Asia.
The estimates are from 2010, at the heart of the recession, through 2014, and are based on a community survey not a complete count.
The differences are not huge, but they are large enough to be statistically significant, and for the most part reflect a trend, not a spike.
The percentage of those without health insurance, however, sharply dropped last year, to 9.2 percent from 10.7 percent, the first time the total has fallen under the 10 percent mark. It was at 11.1 percent in 2010.
While improvement in health care coverage was across the board, it was particularly significant for those without jobs, indicating the success of Obamacare and the expansion of Medicaid. The uninsured unemployed fell from 46 percent in 2010 to 33.5 percent over the five-year period. Those with public coverage nearly doubled from 10.9 percent to 19.3 percent.
A smaller percentage of people were heating with oil in 2014 than 2010 – 44.3 percent compared to 49.2 percent, but surprisingly that wasn’t because of increase in natural gas, which remained essentially flat at 19.4 percent. Propane ticked up a percent, but the biggest gain was in wood heat, growing from 7.8 to 9.5 percent, perhaps reflecting the success of the pellet furnace.
Income inequality
The housing crisis of the last recession also made more renters out of Granite Staters. Some 29.8 percent were renters in 2014, a percentage and a half more than five years earlier, while 70.2 percent own, a percentage and a half drop. The rental vacancy rate 5.2 percent, hardly budged.
Income inequality continues to grow in the state. While the median household income barely changed by 2014, at $66,532 – less than a $300 increase in five years – average household income went up nearly $3,000, to $86,622. That would indicate some skewing at the top and the bottom.
Indeed, some 13.5 percent of households were earning $150,000 annually, as opposed to 12.2 percent in 2010, and those earning $10,000 to $35,000 also increased, to 25.2 percent, compared to 20.4 percent. The percentage of those in the middle fell from 63.1 percent to 61.3 percent.
The poverty rate also increased, to 9.2 from 8.3 percent. The poverty rate for people with kids rose to 13 percent, up from 10 percent in 2010. But education level is rising too – 35 percent of the population had a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2014, compared to 32.8 percent five years earlier.
In addition, the number of foreign-born New Hampshire residents continues to grow. The count stood at 79,432 in 2014 – 6 percent of the state’s population, compared to 5.3 percent in 2010. Some 55 percent, a percent up from 2010, are U.S. citizens. The largest percentage of foreign born New Hampshirites came from Asia – 36.6 percent, up from 33 percent in 2010.
More Access to Healthcare, But Little Progress on Fighting Poverty
by New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute, nhfpi.org, September 18, 2015
The latest pieces of the puzzle regarding New Hampshire’s economic health reveals a mixed bag. According to data released yesterday by the US Census Bureau, more residents have health insurance, yet household incomes are barely rising and poverty reduction remains elusive.
Following two years with very little change, in 2014, the number of New Hampshire residents without health insurance fell by nearly 20,000, from 140,252 to 120,456. A decline was reasonably expected given that New Hampshire began enrollment in its Health Protection Program, which expands health insurance access for low-income adults, in August 2014. Previously released telephone survey results from Gallup corroborate the Census findings. For context, 9.2 percent of the state population is estimated to not have health insurance. This places New Hampshire in the middle of the pack among states, with Massachusetts (3.3 percent) and Texas (19.1 percent) being the states with the lowest and highest shares of its residents without health insurance. - See more at: http://www.nhfpi.org/
Additionally, the Census data does not fully capture the effects of expanded Medicaid in the New Hampshire because the state began the program mid-year. In contrast, respondents to the American Community Survey, the tool the Census Bureau uses to capture this information, received the survey at various points throughout calendar year 2014. Thus, if a resident received a survey in March and was uninsured, but then obtained a policy in August through the Health Protection Program, they would still be counted by the Census Bureau as uninsured. Consequently, this time next year, a further decline in the number of uninsured is probable.
On the other hand, New Hampshire residents continue to struggle with exiting poverty, especially those in households with children. Between 2013 and 2014, the total number of Granite Staters in households with income below the poverty line rose from 111,495 to 117,983. While this increase is not statistically significant, it does indicate that our least fortunate residents are making minimal headway in climbing the economic ladder. Notably, New Hampshire’s poverty rate of 9.2 percent is the lowest in the nation. Mississippi, at 21.5 percent, has the highest share of its population living in poverty. Nevertheless, the issue of households not earning enough for basic needs has become more pervasive since the turn of the century, with the number of New Hampshire residents living in poverty having almost doubled since the year 2000.
For households with children, the situation appears to have worsened again. In 2014, 12.5 percent or nearly 32,900 related children under age 18 lived in households with incomes below the poverty line. This is a statistically significant rise from 2013, when it was estimated that 9.7 percent or nearly 25,600 children were in households earning less than the official poverty level.
Finally, in 2014, the state’s median household income – the income level representing the middle of all the state’s households – was $66,532. While it is encouraging that this figure, adjusted for inflation, has stabilized over the last two years, the fact remains that the purchasing power, or ability to buy goods and services, of the median income household is about 7 percent lower than it was in 2007.
5. Carol Shea-Porter Announces
by Carol Shea-Porter, sheaporter.com, September 19, 2015
During my three terms serving the good people of New Hampshire's First District, I never forgot that public office is a public trust. I’m running again because I have the experience, the competence, and the integrity to serve the rest of us and to fight against special interests. I never take money from corporate PACs and DC lobbyists, so, to quote Shirley Chisholm, I am “unbought and unbossed”—and, I might add, unbreakable! That’s why I have won most of my races in a district that is only 26% Democratic.
Even before my time in Congress, I spent my professional life serving others. Although I had never run for a public office before, I ran for Congress after I volunteered in New Orleans during the Katrina disaster. I knew President Bush and his political allies had failed America in so many ways, and that was not acceptable to me. I wanted to provide honest service to the people.
It was a great honor to be the first woman ever elected to federal office from NH, and I kept my promise to serve the rest of us. I worked hard to pass legislation that helped troops and veterans, families, small business owners, working men and women, senior citizens, and students.
I believe that affordable education creates prosperity, that renewable energy is key to our economic and national security, and that sending manufacturing jobs overseas hurts American workers and small businesses. I believe that investing in infrastructure, fostering job creation, and fair pay are good business decisions and good moral decisions, and that we can reduce the debt without dismantling essential programs.The current Republican-controlled House of Representatives obstructs legislation that will help average Americans and bows to special interests instead of focusing on job creation and good government.
My Dad, who was a Republican, never forgot the power of good government to transform lives. He served in WWII, and then America thanked him with the GI bill for college so his children were raised in the middle class. (I thought of Dad and his generation when I cosponsored the new GI Bill of Rights for this generation, now law.) My Mom and Dad worked hard, raised a family, and served their community. My parents paid their taxes and when they retired, received Social Security benefits and Medicare. It was a contract. My parents supported these programs when they worked, and used them when they retired.
My parents lived the American dream, and so have I. Now, we must work to keep America the land of opportunity and fairness for your children and mine. Please contribute today by mailing a check or contributing here whatever you can. Thank you for your help!
Best Wishes,
Carol
6. If Hassan Doesn't Run for Re-election as Governor
Liberal group promotes Van Ostern for governor if Hassan runs for US Senate
by John DiStaso, wmur.com, September 18, 2015
MANCHESTER, N.H. —As New Hampshire waits for Gov. Maggie Hassan to make her decision on whether to run for re-election or for the U.S. Senate next year, an influential liberal group is making it clear who it will back if Hassan decides to move on.
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee – also known as BoldProgressives.org – has emailed its New Hampshire members and supporters a survey focusing on Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, a Concord Democrat who has strongly indicated he will run for governor if Hassan does not.
PCCC has ties to Van Ostern through its past support of U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster, whose congressional campaign Van Ostern managed in 2010. It has also supported Van Ostern’s successful executive council campaigns.
An email sent to PCCC’s New Hampshire supporters on Thursday links to a survey that begins: “Do you think Maggie Hassan should run for U.S. Senate?”
It then asks: “If Maggie Hassan runs for U.S. Senate, some New Hampshire activists say that progressive Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern -- who has advocated for debt-free college and to protect Planned Parenthood -- should run for Governor. Do you think he should?”
Group co-founder Adam Green said that as of Friday afternoon, 85 percent of the 152 responses received supported a run for governor by Van Ostern.
The survey then asks if there are others who should run for governor if Hassan runs for the Senate. Participants were asked to proactively write in a name, rather than choose from a list.
According to Green, seven respondents named former U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, six wrote in former state Sen. Jackie Cilley, two wrote in former Gov. John Lynch, two wrote in former securities bureau chief Mark Connolly, two wrote in Executive Councilor Chris Pappas and there was a single write-in each for state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, former U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes and former state Sen. Peter Burling.
"Similar to (Massachusetts U.S. Sen.) Elizabeth Warren,” Green said, “Colin is someone grounded in a set of progressive values while also being very savvy about which fights he picks and how he approaches those fights. We've worked closely with Colin on the popular issue of debt-free college and have admired his work defending Planned Parenthood from attacks."
The survey came on the the heels of an announcement by Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen that she will strongly consider running for governor if Hassan does not seek re-election.
7. Birthers and Bigots
by William Tucker, miscellanyblue.com, September 18, 2015
The vicious, anti-Muslim sentiments expressed by a questioner at the Donald Trump rally last night in Rochester are not exceptional among Trump supporters. Even those selected to serve as Trump’s New Hampshire leadership team have shared similar rhetoric in public forums and on social media.
‘A Muslim radical bent on collapsing our country’
Jerry DeLemus, co-chair of the NH Veterans for Trump coalition, describes the president as a “Muslim radical” intent on destroying the country. “Obama is leading a revolution in our country without a shot being fired. This is what the communists promised us,” DeLemus wrote on Facebook. “I do however feel Obama is a Muslim radical bent on collapsing our country. We are nearly finished with the help of the Republicans.”
DeLemus has announced plans to hold a “Draw Muhammad” contest in New Hampshire, emulating a similar event promoted by anti-Muslim activist Pamela Geller in Texas that ended in the shooting deaths of two gunmen. (Even Trump thought that was a bad idea. “It really looks like she’s just taunting everybody,” he said on Fox and Friends. “What is she doing drawing Muhammad?”)
“I am planning this to push back against those that are trying to impose Sharia and or believe that it is justified to kill those that don’t accept their beliefs,” DeLemus explained. “I love Pamela Geller,” he added, “she is honest and courageous.”
‘It’s time for a little bit of intolerance’
DeLemus is not alone. The Belknap County chair of Trump’s New Hampshire leadership team, Josh Youssef, describes himself as “a straight, white, conservative, hard-working, gun-toting, fundamentalist, Bible-believing evangelical Christian!”
Youssef says Americans should be less tolerant of Muslims. “Islam is a Satan-inspired and FALSE religion. That is my 2 cents. … ‘Tolerance’ is what got America into this most precarious situation. It’s time for a little bit of intolerance, and a whole lot of political incorrectness,” he wrote on Facebook.
“People want tolerance?” he asked. “They can feel free to believe in Allah, the fake God, the ‘god’ of death, destruction, polygamy, and all things anti-christ…and I’ll be tolerant of that. But I demand they be tolerant of my right to ridicule it!”
Like Trump, and the anti-Muslim supporter at the Trump rally, Youssef insists the president was not born in America. He calls the president “a godless agent of satan” and has made a 22-minute YouTube video that he claims proves the president’s birth certificate “is a complete and abject forgery.”
“Unfortunately, the American people are so enamored by this guy, so enamored with his rhetoric and his speech-giving and his ability to make people feel good and his ability to think on behalf of non-thinking Americans who just don’t care about their own destiny that they’re willing to overlook these things,” he said.
AND NATIONALLY
8. Clowns with Spritzers
The Long Truck Wreck of the Second GOP Debate(s)
by William Rivers Pitt, truth-out.org, September 17, 2015
So I did it. I made it. I watched the entirety of CNN's first Republican debate on Wednesday night, downed a stout shot of Irish whiskey with a shaking hand, and then plowed through all three ghastly hours of the second CNN Republican debate, taking copious notes all the while ... and then woke up this morning and watched them both again, just to make absolutely sure I'd actually seen what I thought I saw.
I think I might be dying. My stomach feels as if it is crawling slowly up my chest cavity, packed to bursting with bile, in search of my heart, so it can cover the poor broken beating thing with poison and spare me the need to encompass what it was I saw. If it can't find my heart, I believe my stomach intends to ascend the summit of my neck and snap my brain stem like a twig. It will be a mercy either way for the both of us.
Do you know the story "The Picture of Dorian Gray," written by Oscar Wilde at the end of the 19th century? If you don't, here is the tale in brief: Dorian Gray owned a portrait of himself, and was a man who slowly descended into evil behaviors. After every cruel act he committed, the visage of himself in that portrait changed, became more monstrous and ghoulish and twisted. The darker his soul became, the more ghastly the portrait became.
If there are any portraits of the GOP candidates who disgraced their respective stages on Wednesday night with hate and greed and pandering and fear, those portraits would be uglier today beyond measure if Oscar Wilde's pen had its say.
Where to begin? The first debate - the Junior Varsity debate, not to put too fine a point on it - was a debacle, with Gov. Pataki coming forward as the only candidate possessing a lick of sense. Jindal and Santorum embarrassed everyone silly enough to have voted for them, but Jindal managed to out-Santorum Santorum by proclaiming - in regard to the 14-year-old Muslim kid in Texas who brought a clock to school and was accused of being a terrorist - that Christians are the ones being oppressed in the United States. Somewhere in the ether, Jesus facepalmed hard enough to break His nose.
Donald Trump was not present at the first debate, but half the conversation was about him. "Mr. Pataki, Donald Trump said" and "Mr. Jindal, Donald Trump said" and "Mr. Santorum, Donald Trump said," and on and on. You'd think Trump was moderating the damned thing, or hovering over the assemblage like a large orange bat with tragic hair.
Lindsey Graham was the real show, however. He wants to re-insert thousands of US ground troops into Iraq. The refugee crisis in Europe is Obama's fault, because apparently the first decade of this century never actually happened. Iran must be turned to glass by way of pyrotechnic military violence as soon as possible. ISIS fighters are hiding in your toilet paper roll, and will kill you deader than yesterday as soon as they cut through that second ply. He went to a manicurist on Thursday to clean the splinters from his fingernails after having done such vigorous work clawing the bottom of the barrel.
One item of note, and I don't think this was an accident: They lined the four candidates up in descending order according to height, with Pataki at the far left podium and Graham at the far right. When the camera panned back to catch them all, Graham looked for all the world like a pinkie toe. The image gave me a small budget of joy.
The second debate ... oh, dear God, the second debate ... it opened with Rubio making a crass joke about the catastrophic drought affecting California and the West, and went downhill from there. Once again, Trump questions dominated. "Mr. Rubio, Donald Trump said" and "Mr. Bush, Donald Trump said" and "Ms. Fiorino, Donald Trump said," all night long. Carly Fiorino, to her credit, ate Trump's lunch on more than a few occasions before blathering about Benghazi nonsense when Hillary Clinton's name came up.
One thing was made perfectly clear: They all want to go to war, everywhere, all the time. The eleven GOP candidates in the second debate were like the actualized id of Lindsey Graham: War in Iraq, war in Iran, war in Syria, war and war and war and, oh, did I mention war?
Dr. Ben Carson was calmly awful. Bush was barely there. Rubio actually did well, voice occasionally quavering with emotion, as he expounded on his twisted world view. Mike Huckabee was, is, and will always be simply terrible. Paul looked like he'd gotten into a fight with bad hairdressers and lost, and spoke just as absurdly. Walker visibly shrank seven inches over the course of the evening. Kasich was grindingly competent, which will get him nowhere with the GOP primary-voter base. Christie was New Jersey in a suit. Fiorina dominated in the shroud of her incompetence, Trump was, as ever, Trump ... and Cruz, as I have said before, continued his role as a Batman villain.
I could plow through every sloppy detail, but most of you already know this oft-repeated mess of a story. Reagan was invoked as if he was an anointed saint during the Iran discussion, as if Reagan hadn't sold missiles to Iran in order to fund the slaughter of Central American civilians. The answer to the wildly complex immigration issue was to build a wall, or mass deportations, or maybe deportations with the shade of a prayer of return ... with a hint of the dark truth salted in: We can't actually do this, because it will damage the agricultural industry. Economic inequality will be solved by making rich people richer.
Planned Parenthood must be de-funded at the expense of basic health care for women, and shut down the government if you must to get that done. At one point, Carly Fiorina actually linked Planned Parenthood to Iran, and my soul died just a little bit. Best of all, thanks to the presence of Jeb, the reputation and record of the deplorable George W. Bush was heralded and defended, and those sentiments received the loudest vomits of applause during the entire affair.
It was a long night, and a longer morning. It's going to be a long year. If this is the best crew the Grand Old Party can summon, we have a long way to go. At this point, the GOP campaign for president is the World Wrestling Federation in Gucci shoes, complete with thrown folding chairs and the absolute absence of reality. Wednesday night's marathon two-lane truck wreck did nothing whatsoever to dispel this notion.
Ever seen chickadees fight in the hedges? Pecking and squawking and feathers flying? It was like that. For hours.
The Republican Foreign Policy Consensus: Lunacy
by Robert Borosage, ourfuture.org, September 18, 2015
Before turning on the Republican debate on Wednesday night, I had begun writing an article on Hillary Clinton’s alarmingly bellicose foreign policy ideas. But Hillary’s hawkish stance is a portrait of restraint in contrast to the adolescent muscle flexing and locker room taunts that mark the foreign policy exchanges of the Republican presidential contenders in their most recent debate.
The competitive bluster got so fierce that Donald “I am the most militaristic person” Trump turned out to be one of the least unhinged in the claque. After 14 years of costly, destabilizing war in the Middle East, these candidates pledge, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Those with the least standing in the polls tended to be the most extreme in their rhetoric. Sen. Ted Cruz would tear up the Iran agreement on his first day in office. TV talk host Mike Huckabee hyperventilated over ISIS as an “existential threat” to the U.S. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker continued to suggest that smashing unions in his state showed he was ready to take on ISIS. Only Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Trump and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul dared summon a few words of caution about the folly of the Iraq war, the need to work with allies, or acknowledge some limit on U.S. power.
Pundits hailed Carly Fiorina, the fired CEO and failed Senate candidate, as a clear winner in the debate, relishing her putdown of Donald Trump and her forceful foreign policy statements. But Fiorina showed only that she had mastered her blustery neoconservative briefing points, however untethered from reality.
For Fiorina, America must police the world. She scorned talking with Putin at all. “We need the strongest military on the face of the planet and everyone has to know what that means.” She’d rather flex our military muscles – add to the Sixth fleet, rebuild missile defense programs in Poland, send more troops to Europe, do “aggressive military exercises” on the Russian border, modernize every part of our nuclear arsenal, and arm everyone who asks from Jordan to the Kurds. “Vladimir Putin would get the message.”
As Ezra Klein noted, this sounds good, but ignores that most of this Obama is already doing, and the rest makes no sense. America already has the strongest military in the world – and Trump is right, our allies are increasingly free riders, happy to let us do all the fighting. And everyone does know “what that means,” which is one reason why regimes in our cross hairs like Iran might want to seek a nuclear weapon. Paul noted that even at the height of the Cold War, Reagan negotiated with Soviet leaders. Fiorina didn’t indicate what she thought Putin would do when he got “the message.” The assumption is that if we swagger enough, he’ll just stand down and obey. Lots of luck with that.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was praised for displaying his foreign policy “expertise” in the debate, even as he served up a ludicrous muddle of hysteria, bellicosity and posturing. For Rubio, the world is now much more dangerous than it was in the Cold War when the U.S. actually faced a global rival armed with nuclear weapons. Now there is a “lunatic” in North Korea with nuclear weapons, the Chinese are expanding their military, a ”gangster in Moscow” threatens to “destroy and divide NATO” and a “radical Shia cleric with apocalyptic vision” “guaranteed to possess nuclear weapons.”
Negotiations are merely a sign of weakness. Allowing countries on the other side of the world to deal with their own problems only represents “withdrawal” that creates “vacuums” that terrorists will fill. “The belief that somehow by retreating, America makes the world safer has been disproven every single time it’s ever been tried,” Rubio said. That staying out of other people’s troubles might make America safer is not even up for consideration.
The only answer is more – more weapons, more interventions, more wars. The U.S. must stand guard everywhere from Korea to the South China Sea to the Persian Gulf across Africa to South America.
Rubio, of course, supported the disastrous interventions in Iraq and Libya – as did most of the candidates on the stage, excepting Trump, Paul and Ben Carson. None could conceive of the notion that American intervention – not retreat – created the chaos that led to ISIS and destabilized the region. When Carson suggested that military intervention is not always the right answer, that its important to think through alternatives, Rubio was having none of it:
“But radical terrorism cannot be solved by intellect. It cannot – they require – what they need, is they need an operating space. That’s what Afghanistan was for Al Qaeda. It was a vacuum that they filled, and they created an operating space….That’s why they had to be destroyed. It is the reason why ISIS has grown as well. We allowed them – we allowed a vacuum to emerge in Syria. They used it as an operating space to grow; and today they’re not just in Iraq and Syria anymore, they’re now in Libya, conducting operations in the Sinai. They’re now in Afghanistan, trying to supplant the Taliban as the most powerful radical jihadist group on the ground there, as well. You cannot allow radical jihadists to have an operating safe havenanywhere in the world.“
But it was the U.S. that invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya, creating the instability and feeding the sectarian conflicts. It was U.S. allies like the Saudi Arabians that funded much of the terror. Trump suggested that if Assad and ISIS wanted to fight each other, the U.S. might be wise to let them do so and “pick up the remnants.” Rubio would have none of that.
If you want a president to lead us into constant wars “anywhere in the world,” Republicans have your man.
America, of course, must lead this effort. Republicans disagree about how many troops are needed, or whether we can simply train and arm our surrogates while raining bombs from drones across various regions.
But when it comes to climate change, American leadership is useless. According to Rubio, we should not take any steps to lead the transition to renewable energy because we aren’t going to “make America a harder place to create jobs” in order to pursue policies that will do nothing, “absolutely nothing” to change our climate. “America is a lot of things…but America is not a planet.” So we shouldn’t push on climate change, because that requires global cooperation. We do wars. On our own. Diplomacy, leading by example to engage others, dialogue – surely that is for others to worry about.
There is a dangerous vacuum on foreign policy – a vacuum caused by the withdrawal of common sense and prudence, and filled with unhinged bluster and blind belief in the military. Listening to Republicans, one can only shudder at the fate of our country.
Fantasies and Fictions at G.O.P. Debate
by Paul Krugman, nytimes.com, September 18, 2015
I’ve been going over what was said at Wednesday’s Republican debate, and I’m terrified. You should be, too. After all, given the vagaries of elections, there’s a pretty good chance that one of these people will end up in the White House.
Why is that scary? I would argue that all of the G.O.P. candidates are calling for policies that would be deeply destructive at home, abroad, or both. But even if you like the broad thrust of modern Republican policies, it should worry you that the men and woman on that stage are clearly living in a world of fantasies and fictions. And some seem willing to advance their ambitions with outright lies.
Let’s start at the shallow end, with the fantasy economics of the establishment candidates.
You’re probably tired of hearing this, but modern G.O.P. economic discourse is completely dominated by an economic doctrine — the sovereign importance of low taxes on the rich — that has failed completely and utterly in practice over the past generation.
Think about it. Bill Clinton’s tax hike was followed by a huge economic boom, the George W. Bush tax cuts by a weak recovery that ended in financial collapse. The tax increase of 2013 and the coming of Obamacare in 2014 were associated with the best job growth since the 1990s. Jerry Brown’s tax-raising, environmentally conscious California is growing fast; Sam Brownback’s tax- and spending-slashing Kansas isn’t.
Yet the hold of this failed dogma on Republican politics is stronger than ever, with no skeptics allowed. On Wednesday Jeb Bush claimed, once again, that his voodoo economics would double America’s growth rate, while Marco Rubio insisted that a tax on carbon emissions would “destroy the economy.”
The only candidate talking sense about economics was, yes, Donald Trump, who declared that “we’ve had a graduated tax system for many years, so it’s not a socialistic thing.”
If the discussion of economics was alarming, the discussion of foreign policy was practically demented. Almost all the candidates seem to believe that American military strength can shock-and-awe other countries into doing what we want without any need for negotiations, and that we shouldn’t even talk with foreign leaders we don’t like. No dinners for Xi Jinping! And, of course, no deal with Iran, because resorting to force in Iraq went so well.
Indeed, the only candidate who seemed remotely sensible on national security issues was Rand Paul, which is almost as disturbing as the spectacle of Mr. Trump being the only voice of economic reason.
The real revelation on Wednesday, however, was the way some of the candidates went beyond expounding bad analysis and peddling bad history to making outright false assertions, and probably doing so knowingly, which turns those false assertions into what are technically known as “lies.”
For example, Chris Christie asserted, as he did in the first G.O.P. debate, that he was named U.S. attorney the day before 9/11. It’s still not true: His selection for the position wasn’t even announced until December.
Some of Mrs. Fiorina’s fibs involved repeating thoroughly debunked claimsabout her business record. No, she didn’t preside over huge revenue growth. She made Hewlett-Packard bigger by acquiring other companies, mainly Compaq, and that acquisition was a financial disaster. Oh, and if her life is a story of going from “secretary to C.E.O.,” mine is one of going from mailman to columnist and economist. Sorry, working menial jobs while you’re in school doesn’t make your life a Horatio Alger story.
But the truly awesome moment came when she asserted that the videos being used to attack Planned Parenthood show “a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says we have to keep it alive to harvest its brain.” No, they don’t. Anti-abortion activists have claimed that such things happen, but have produced no evidence, just assertions mingled with stock footage of fetuses.
So is Mrs. Fiorina so deep inside the bubble that she can’t tell the difference between facts and agitprop? Or is she deliberately spreading a lie? And most important, does it matter?
I began writing for The Times during the 2000 election campaign, and what I remember above all from that campaign is the way the conventions of “evenhanded” reporting allowed then-candidate George W. Bush to make clearly false assertions — about his tax cuts, about Social Security — without paying any price. As I wrote at the time, if Mr. Bush said the earth was flat, we’d see headlines along the lines of “Shape of the Planet: Both Sides Have a Point.”
Now we have presidential candidates who make Mr. Bush look like Abe Lincoln. But who will tell the people?
9. Well-Fed
Janet Yellen and the Fed Did the Right Thing
by John Cassidy, newyorker.com, September 17, 2015
As most people in the financial markets had been expecting, and as many commentators—myself included—had been urging, Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the Federal Reserve have decided not to raise interest rates, at least for now. Citing developments in the world economy, including recent turbulence in the stock markets and softness in inflation, Yellen told reporters, at the conclusion of a two-day Fed policy meeting, that the U.S. central bank wanted to wait a bit and see what impact, if any, the global developments will have on the U.S. economy.
The Fed’s decision was perfectly justified. As it interprets its legal mandate, its job is to maximize employment growth in a manner consistent with an inflation target of two per cent. Despite the fact that job growth has been steady and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1 per cent, which is close to the level at which the Fed believes inflation starts to accelerate, there is absolutely no sign yet of inflation picking up. To the contrary, headline inflation is running at an annual rate of just 0.2 per cent, and last month consumer prices actually fell a little. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is running at 1.8 per cent, which is also below the Fed’s target. Even if you’re an inflation hawk, it’s hard to argue that the Fed needs to act now.
For the rest of us, the primary concern is insuring that the economic recovery continues, and that recent tentative signs of wage growth finally translate into real income gains for the majority of Americans. On Wednesday, while Yellen and her colleagues on the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (F.O.M.C.) were deciding what to do, the Census Bureau released a reportshowing that median household income—i.e., that of the household in the middle of the income distribution—fell by about eight hundred dollars last year. The drop, from $54,462 to $53,657, wasn’t statistically significant, but, as Robert Greenstein, the president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, pointed out in an analysis of the Census Bureau figures, it meant that the income of the typical American household is still more than eight per cent below the level it reached in 2000.
Yellen, since taking over from Ben Bernanke, in 2010, has repeatedly emphasized her concerns about income stagnation and rising inequality. In presiding over another meeting at which the Fed resisted the demands of inflation hawks, she demonstrated that the Fed, under her leadership, will do what it can to support job growth and income growth. But the decision to stand pat raises some tricky questions about where the Fed will go from here.
On one hand, Yellen, in her press briefing, said, “The economy has been performing well, and we expect it to continue to do so.” The gross domestic product is growing faster, and unemployment has fallen farther, than the Fed had expected earlier this year—developments reflected in new economic projections released by the F.O.M.C. members. Citing this good news, Yellen said that the Fed could raise rates at its next meeting, in October, and pointed out that most F.O.M.C. members still expect a rate hike by the year’s end. (There is another policymaking meeting in December.)
On the other hand, Yellen acknowledged that the Fed, which usually maintains a domestic focus, is increasingly concerned about developments in the world economy, including the gyrations in global markets that occurred in August. “A lot of our focus has been on risks around China. But not just China—emerging markets more generally,” she said. That’s perfectly understandable. The Fed isn’t just concerned that the U.S. will import some of the problems occurring elsewhere. Although it seldom acknowledges this publicly, the bank’s actions can have a big effect on markets and economies around the world, and there was a danger that, it if went ahead and raised interest rates now, it would exacerbate the problems in China and elsewhere. In recent weeks, officials from both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have issued warnings about this possibility, and urged the Fed to act with caution. For example, Kaushik Basu, the chief economist at the World Bank, said that a Fed rate rise could trigger “panic and turmoil” in emerging markets.
Yellen didn’t say what role, if any, these warnings played in the Fed’s deliberations. In any case, it seems highly unlikely that the economic problems in China, Brazil, and other developing countries will be resolved anytime soon. So the Fed’s decision to weigh global developments heavily in its decision-making appeared to raise the prospect that it will stay the course for some time—into the first half of next year, at least.
Seemingly aware that she was sending a somewhat mixed message, Yellen pointed out some additional complexities that the Fed is dealing with. On the domestic front, a big fall in oil prices has sent the inflation rate tumbling, but the bank considers this to be temporary development. In the labor market, which Yellen monitors very closely, the unemployment rate has fallen sharply. However, other indicators, such as the number of people involuntarily working part-time and the labor-force-participation rate, suggest that “there are additional margins of slack,” as Yellen put it. At the international level, too, there are a lot of unknowns, she said. In China, for example, “the question is whether there might be a risk of a more abrupt slowdown than most analysts expect.”
To sum it up, Yellen’s message was that the Fed needs more time, and more data, to figure things out. “There are a lot of crosscurrents in economic and financial developments that we need to take into account,” she said. That’s undeniable. What it means is that the great Fed watch of 2015 will go on for a while yet.
Zero interest rate policy may be bad for Wall Street but it's good for workers
by Dean Baker, theguardian.com, September 19, 2015
It took them a day to absorb the news but by Friday investors across the world had decided that the Federal Reserve’s decision not to increase interest rates was bad news. Stock markets dropped as investors absorbed the Fed’s cautious tone about the world economy. But while Wall Street may not be happy, this weekend most workers should be breathing a sigh of relief.
For weeks we have been hearing from trigger happy economists and policy types, including some at the Federal Reserve, arguing that the Fed should start raising rates for the first time since the recession. Fortunately, for now at least it seems Fed chair Janet Yellen has chosen not to join this chorus. For at least another six weeks, the Fed will leave its zero interest rate policy in place.
The drive to raise interest rates is difficult to understand from any broad view of the state of the economy. Most immediately, it is not possible to find any basis for concern about inflation getting out of control. The inflation index upon which the Fed focuses has been running below its 2% target for six years. Its most recent movement has been flat or even downward as falling commodity and import prices have put downward pressure on the overall inflation rate.
Furthermore, it is important to remember that the Fed’s policy is that 2% inflation is an average, not a ceiling. This means that we can run an inflation rate of 3% for the next four years and still be in line with the Fed’s inflation target.
If recent price movements provide little rationale for raising interest rates, the current state of the labor market gives plenty of reason to keep interest rates low. It’s true that the 5.1% unemployment rate is not especially high, but this measure does not fit with most of the other evidence about the state of the labor market.
The employment rate, the percentage of the population who have jobs, is still more than three percentage points below its pre-recession level. This is true even if we focus exclusively on prime age (ages 25-54) workers. Other measures of labor market slack, like percentage of people involuntarily working part-time and the quit rate are still near recession levels.
Most importantly, there is no evidence that wage growth is accelerating. The rate of hourly wage growth remains near 2%, the same pace as the last four years. If workers are to share in the gains of productivity growth we should be seeing annual wage growth of at least one percentage point more than the rate of inflation. In fact, since workers should be getting back some of their losses over the last decade, we should expect to see wage growth outpace productivity growth for at least a short period of time.
While the case against a rate hike is strong, it was hardly a foregone conclusion that the Fed would not raise rates. Many of the establishment economists and economic policy types (you know, the people who couldn’t see an $8tn housing bubble) were arguing that the Fed should raise rates. They really didn’t have much of a story on the need to curb inflation, nor could they plausible argue the economy is growing too fast.
In the absence of the normal justifications for rate hikes they were left to arguing that a zero interest rate is not normal. Of course, an economy in which millions of workers can’t find jobs, millions more can’t get full-time jobs, and wages are stagnant, is not normal either. That is the reason we need to keep interest rates low.
The rate hikers’ return to normal argument is like arguing that putting away our umbrellas will make it stop raining. It simply is not serious.
But policy has often been moved by unserious arguments in the past. A big difference this time was the public mobilization against an interest rate hike. At the center of this movement is the Fed Up campaign being led by the Center for Popular Democracy. This campaign has pulled together unions, community activists, religious organizations, and ordinary workers across the country.
They have visited with members of the Fed’s board of governors, including Yellen, as well as many of the Fed’s district bank presidents. The point is to remind the Fed’s leaders that interest rate hikes have real consequences for real people. Higher rates mean fewer jobs. They also mean lower wages and less bargaining power for those who have jobs.
This sort of campaign is important for securing a balance in Fed policy. The financial industry can be counted on to pressure the Fed to raise rates to prevent inflation. After all, the Wall Street bankers rarely lose their jobs in a downturn. It is essential that the Fed feel comparable pressure on behalf of ordinary workers. For now it seems they took the workers’ views seriously.
FINALLY
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